🔗 Share this article

Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction

The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Significant resources is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".

Nocturnal Warfare

As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from across the border, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.

Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.

Ongoing Risks

Following this, a automatic firearm engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.

Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: several casualties, devastation and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.

Every new approach from US leadership follows the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.

Strategic Calculations

It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.

The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the near future.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.

Current Realities

Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a just a single week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.

While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.